I havent had to download WGA yet.

There was an article about 6 months ago that had a statement from an official at MS that stated that the actual percentage of false-positives was less than 5% of the reported number of invalid copies.

Sorry, I did not bookmark the article, but it was on one of the more prominent sites for MS reviews.

I have done at least 50 clean installs on machines in the last 9 months without any issues on installs and updates on a number of machines. The only issue I have found is that the control software took a minute or two on a few occassions to run the check.

I am not sure what realistic alternatives would be available due to the incessant need for some people to use pirated software.   

I agree.

The most infamous claim of a "false positive" was by Paul Thurrott apparently who claimed WGA falsely claimed his machine was pirated. Turned out, he had a pirated copy.

But what people remembered was the very loud claims of WGA's false positive and not the much less heard of follow-up that no, he actually had a pirated copy (he didn't realize his copy was pirated).

I've 'rebirthed' about a dozen XP machines over the past 12 months, mostly 'Pro', and only had one kick up a fuss on activation.

'Rebirthing' is the process whereby an office-leased machine is returned to the store to be resold as second-hand, needing the drive wiped and the OS re-installed.  Each has the reg 'sticker' attached, so the number is not a problem [except when it's poorly printed....8 = B , etc].

One IBM desktop machine didn't like the disk used to install the OS [I'd used the same on all] so on activation the comp popped up a 'call MS' message....but with a fair understanding of Indian-flavoured English it was soon sorted.

One 'hopes' that wasn't included in the 'Invalids' as it really had more to do with a crappy printing of the label than anything else...

From what I've seen the last 6 months.
I believe it 100%.

WGA had tagged my install as invalid...and mine is NOT pirated...unless Dell sells pirated copies of Windows. I had to call microsoft to get it all fixed...what a royal pain...

My Dell Copy was also tagged as Pirated.. I have yet to call M$ as I don't have the time. Thanks M$. Because of that, I was forced to use a not so legal crack.. uggg

I have a genuine copy... It validates OK on the MS website while downloading IE7. However, I think that turning off the BITS and Automatic Updates services means that the permanent client doesn't get installed.

I'm curious what would happen with no serial numbers or activation or any of that business. Maybe piracy would jump a few points, but I doubt it's really enough to warrant such a pain in the butt for legitimate customers. The kind of people who will pirate will find a way to do it with any level of security or protection. The kind of people who will be honest and pay don't need to be authorized or monitored (or hassled) with this stuff.

lol only %22?

The 22% number are those who are willing to determine if their copy of Windows is legit. However, the complete and truly accurate % is still unknown. There are some who do have an illegitimate copy knowingly and tried to validate. Part of that 22% is perhaps from that. Then there are those who are wise about what they do with their illegal copy of Windows. Those are the ones you cannot tell or sniff out, because they are out there and have stayed in the shadow of darkness.

The numbers are interesting... but so far the numbers are inaccurate to me.

Personally, I think this is Microsoft's overkill reaction to OS piracy. It can be a huge pain to deal with their software--far more than it should be. I bought an upgrade WinXP Pro package from my local university bookstore a few years ago and attempted to install it on my machine running (a legal copy of) Windows 98 (machine exceeded WinXP specs); after attempting to install it on my own several times, I brought the machine and the XP to a local computer dealer, had him upgrade the mobo and RAM, and even after that, he ended up installing a copy of XP they had at his shop instead of the one I purchased at the store, because he couldn't get it to install completely either. I have since upgraded to a completely different machine and am running XP Media Center, but it just strikes me that if MS could find some balance point in their attitude towards piracy control between Stardock's GalCiv approach and their own present draconian "shut-down-your-OS-if-we-suspect-something-untoward" approach, it would do them a world of PR good and it wouldn't likely make a huge dent in their sales. As Adamness said, some people will pirate OS software no matter what; for me, it's a question of reliability. If I wanted to take a chance and use an illegal copy of an OS and hope that it doesn't transmit my data to some server in Malaysia or wipe my hard drive for no reason at random intervals, I guess I would do that, but it's just not worth taking that chance. I'd much rather pay for the software and have a reasonable expectation that any bugs I encounter are not deliberately placed there by malware programmers. (Microsoft seems to have a hard enough time keeping legitimate copies of its OS software secure!)

I think that this is just a stepping stone on the road to the day where we're all paying Microsoft a monthly fee to "rent" software that they keep on locked-down servers in Washington to run our computers and do word-processing, spreadsheet and database programming, and presentation creation. It's enough to make you want to switch to Linux and OpenOffice for good!

The date is the only thing that has to be wrong for the thing to get it wrong. At our library there are computers that you can use and I order for me to download Microsoft Software I must do it elseware then the Microsoft web page because the user that is loged in can not change the system date and time.

Not sure how they do it but here in Africa, as you probably know, pirating is rife and I 'll bet those figures are right . What you do in most countries here is you a) buy a new machine and windows is pre-installed (the tiny phone/computer/copy shop in Sudan street, or Kasavubu avenue,is going to instal a new disc? Not on your life), or, more interesting, you ask your local computer repair man to make you a copy of XP. He does, for a small "baksheesh", and you have a copy on a previously blank disc with a key?

This is where my ignorance comes in: How can he give you a serial key that is being used over and over? I thought that couldn't happen.

Some parts of Asia may be pirate heaven but I can assure you, Africa is pirate paradise. South Africa is one of the few countries where pirating is policed. That leaves 50 or so others where it isn't. Go figure.

Microsoft has a legitimate right to protect its property. I'm not really sure what they should be doing to insure that people use genuine versions of their products. Enough people have complained about "false" alarms to show that WGA is not perfect. But again, what is MS suppose to do? I've had to call their desk in India several times after reinstalling XP but it only took a minute or so and I have always gotten a new serial number.

Long term I agree with those who see a day when we will rent all of our content and suffer under controlled monopolies who raise prices and lower service. This is part of a future that includes black boxes in your cars and cellular phone along with tags in your clothing that tell some hidden authority where you are and what you are doing. Ultimately we will have implanted chips in our body and will one day discover that they include a "shut down" switch remotely controlled so as to be able to eliminate undesirables from society. Enjoy your remaining privacy while you can.