From technology to politics to video games; these are the random thoughts of a geek with too much time on his hands

image This week saw another blow to the beleaguered US housing market with the release of foreclosure statistics for the second quarter of 2008 (April, May, June).  In that period 739,714(1) foreclosure filings were recorded.  This is a jump of 14% over Q1 2008, and up 121% over the same period in 2007.  This means that one in 171 homes received a filing.  220,000 homes were actually repossessed by banks in that period.

There’s no question that the housing implosion is not only continuing with little sign of relief, but that it is accelerating at a nearly unimaginable rate.  It’s reached a point where congress has finally decided to step in to try and hold back the flood, to give home owners more time, and to try and prop up financial institutions as hundreds of thousands of borrowers default on their loans every month.

This, combined with out-of-control fuel prices pushing the cost of virtually everything else up, is creating a perfect economic storm that could threaten everyone, even those who are on sound financial footing at the moment.

Things are definitely looking grim.

In a declining job market, with high fuel costs, soaring food prices and a black hole of a housing market sucking everyone down, you would think that there would be a drop in luxury item sales like high-end techno toys.  As the financial future darkens, maybe folks would start cutting back to essentials.

Well, you certainly won’t get that impression if you look at iPhone sales.  The first twelve days of the iPhone 3G showed sales nearly double over the initial sales launch of the phone a year ago.  The iPhone overall has pushed up AT&T’s profits by 30% (2).

Keep in mind that the iPhone is a device that costs between $200 and $300, plus monthly contract fees that can be close to $100/month.  Before the launch of the 3G, the iPhone cost $500 to $600 depending on model.  Extremely pricey for a phone that doesn’t even hook into most corporate email systems (ok, so they’ve got Exchange setup sorta now on the 3G).

So we have sales for a souped-up phone doubling as an mp3 player and Internet device, but one could almost argue that an iPhone can have legitimate business uses.  So we’ll mark that down as a quasi-luxury.

But then there’s video game consoles.  We’ll ignore software sales and focus on hardware, since that’s the bigger ticket item, and you’d expect people to be more hesitant to plop down the cash for something with a high price tag.

So lets look at the number of consoles sold from the first week of January, 2006 through July 20th, 2008(3)

System 1/7/06 7/20/08 % Change
Wii 1,311,338 12,956,112 888.01%
360 5,154,412 11,985,140 132.52%
PS3 809,693 5,490,628 578.11%

So we’re seeing a strong surge in console hardware sales.  as of 7/20/2008, there have been 30,431,880 consoles sold (over the lifespan of each system so far).  For some perspective, there are 300 million people in the US.  This means that 1 in 10 people in the United States have a current generation console (on average).

Lets look at this another way, there were, as of March 2006, an estimated 114 million households(4) in the United States.  So the console owned average is just about 1 in 4 households.  And you know what?  Sales of these gizmos are still increasing, and at a quick pace.  The cost of essential items such as food are jumping, the cost to drive to work is soaring, people are losing their homes hand-over-fist, but people are buying consoles and phones at a stupid rate.  In fact, in console sales along, Americans have spent nearly $10bln.  Who knows what the actual figures are for iPhone sales and contract fees.

We have folks in Washington D.C whining and complaining about how unfair it all is, how the government needs to step in to save poor home owners, poor drivers, poor everyone who has to suffer increased prices on virtually everything.  But you know what?  How about we take a look at what people are still buying.  Why can’t we expect people to take responsibility for their spending?  Why is it up to everyone else to save folks from poor financial decisions?

My suggestion?  If you have purchased more than a few hundred dollars in purely luxury items such as video game consoles, cell phones, big screen TVs etc while not making payments on your home, then you shouldn’t get a red cent of financial assistance.  If you can’t get your spending priorities straight, it’s your own damn fault for being up sh*t creek without a paddle.

 

 

1 – Les Christie. “Foreclosure Filings up 120%.”  CNN Money.  July 25, 2008
http://money.cnn.com/2008/07/25/real_estate/foreclosure_figures_up_again/index.htm?postversion=2008072505

2 – Sam Oliver “AT&T says initial iPhone sales double that of last year.”  AppleInsider.com.  July 23, 2008
http://www.appleinsider.com/articles/08/07/23/att_says_initial_iphone_sales_double_that_of_last_year.html

3 – VGChartz.com US Console Hardware Sales Data.  1/7/06 – 7/20/08"
http://www.vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=Wii&reg1=America&cons2=PS3&reg2=America&cons3=X360&reg3=America&start=39089&end=39649&weekly=1

4 - “Households, Families, and Married Couples, 1890 – 2006”  InfoPlease.com
http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005055.html


Comments
on Jul 25, 2008

This is one of the reasons the market is the way it is.  I'm not saying mortgage companies and their practices are not to blame, but people seem to have no sense of priorities or financial responsibility.

Sadly, nobody addresses this as it might "offend" someone.

 

on Jul 25, 2008

Yeah, unfortunately "Hey, you got yourself into this situation, you get yourself out" isn't a very good re-election tactic. So the bailouts pass, and we all get screwed.

on Jul 25, 2008

Now don't get me wrong, there are some people who were just flat-out screwed by the economic down-turn through little fault of their own (companies lay off workers as economy worsens, hard to find a new job etc.).  Those folks could use some help.  My issue is with the people who have no impulse control, and then expect someone to come to their rescue.

on Jul 25, 2008

Game console sales are up because people are staying home rather than taking trips and going out to eat, entertainment in the home can quickly pay for itself especially for families. 

iphone sales are up because it’s a desirable product, your contention that either them or game consoles are being purchased with mortgage money or are the cause of these rising foreclosures is a non sequitur.

The reason we’re seeing so many foreclosures is because so many people bought homes at there maximum limit to pay for, thinking in a souring market it would be no problem getting out if it turned out they couldn’t swing it. They didn’t give themselves any cushion and that was financially, not so much irresponsible, but naïve of them. They gambled and they lost, I don’t see it as any different than losing money you don’t have in the stock market and I don’t think they should be bailed out ether.

on Jul 25, 2008
I get your point, and I don't disagree. Pay your bills (especially your mortgage) first.

This reminds me of the lipstick thing though. Supposedly you can tell when money is tight and the economy is bad because lipstick sales go way up. The belief is that it's an inexpensive way for a woman to have some sort of luxury and the enjoyment of shopping without blowing the budget (although, I don't think lipstick is all that cheap now).

Although $8 lipstick and $300 iphones (with $100/month service charges) are apples to oranges, I guess?

on Jul 25, 2008

Well when America decides to go back to personal accountability this kind of stuff just might go away.

on Jul 26, 2008

These items are cheap luxuries.  Their sales are up because people are cutting back on expensive luxuries, travel and dining out. 

Where I live restaurants/tourism make up a substantial part of the local economy and customers are rare now.  People aren't taking the family out to dinner seven days a week anymore or flying to Hawaii every other weekend.

Also I bet luxury car/truck sales are way down too and new car sales.  Where I purchased my used truck I got an excellent price because auto sales are so slow.

One has to remember for every loser there is a winner.  This housing slump is great for me!  I rent and it keeps rents down.  I only lose when housing prices rise.  Conversely if you work for or own stock in oil companies your singing all the way to the bank.

In my case, my landlord raises my rent to cover his fuel increases plus I pay for my own so these high fuel prices hit me from all sides but someone out there is benefiting.

Just to saive everyone tighten your belt and we will be OK is naive!  If everyone did that the economy would collapse very quickly.  What we need is rich people to spend more!  Only poor people should tightening their belts.  I don't know too many bagladies with a Blackberry... 

on Jul 26, 2008

P.S. If we all stop buying luxuries like Stardock games then poor Kyro will be out of a job, not be able to pay his mortgage (which I am sure is quite modest) nor will he be able to go on vacation to Aruba this year.  A little thought goes a long way. 

on Jul 26, 2008

People should be smart enough to realize one thing: Never take risks with your house. Man needs two things for a relatively healthy life, food and shelter. These take care of most everything. Luxuries are extra. They can be bought, but don't whine about loosing your house because the car payments or PS3 drove you under.